My favorite Justin since Timberlake. That’s all I have to say. Wait, that’s not all. I was able to turn $50 into $200 at the end of Sunday thanks to the Steelers and Chargers. That is all.
While I nailed my best bet last week, the rest of the slate was pretty shaky. It would’ve been a lot better if Austin Seibert, kicker for the Cleveland Browns, had made the extra point at the end of the Browns-Bengals game. It could have turned a push into a win. I can’t even begin to tell you how much I expected him to miss that kick. As we all know, there are three certainties in life. Death, taxes, and bad beats.
Overall, I went 1-0 on my best bets and 6-7 on the rest. My total for the season is 4-3 on best bets and a 22-18 record overall. I am not sure how many of you are actually following through on my advice. However, i firmly expect you guys to start sooner rather than later. Let’s get down to business.
Best Bet of the Week:
Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)
Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers are arguably the best pitch and catch combo in the league. They make it look so effortless. Just look back to what the two were able to do in Week 1. Rodgers threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns while Adams had 14 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. You may be asking yourself who they were facing. Ah yes, that’s right, the Vikings.
The Vikings are coming off of a bye week, which is good for a team like them because it means they weren’t able to lose. Before that, they played the then winless Falcons at home and were soundly beaten. Matt Ryan was able to put up 371 yards and 4 touchdowns while Julio Jones had eight catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Sound familiar? That’s because the Vikings pass defense is the same exact defense that Rodgers and Adams torched earlier in the season.
The return of Dalvin Cook this week will certainly help the Vikings get back to their roots offensively while rookie wideout Justin Jefferson also hadn’t broken out yet. While there are reasons that the Vikings may be better than they were in Week 1, they just aren’t. The Packers have taken care of lesser competition so far this year. All of their wins this year have been by at least a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Vikings, they are lesser competition. GO PACK GO!
Bet: Packers (-6.5)
Falcons @ Panthers (-1.5)
In their last meeting in Week 2, the Panthers won in Atlanta by a score of 23-16. The major difference between that game and this one is the fact that Julio Jones did not play. Matt Ryan suffered because of it as he threw for 226 scoreless yards. Jones has really helped this offense immensely with his presence the past few weeks. Julio’s inclusion in this game should tilt the scales. Take the Falcons
Bet: Falcons (+1.5)
Titans (-5.5) @ Bengals
The Bengals simply are not a good enough team at this point. They have shown flashes as Joe Burrow is coming off of his most impressive outing so far in his young NFL career. However, the Bengals have a 1-5-1 record and have not faced many good teams so far this year. The best team they have played is Baltimore and they were soundly beaten by a score of 27-3. The Titans just lost their undefeated record and should be motivated to get back in the win column. King Henry should have a field day against a team that has given up the fifth most rushing yards on a per game basis, according to ESPN. Expect the Titans to cover here.
Bet: Titans (-5.5)
Jets @ Chiefs (-19.5)
They got me, finally. After all my trash talking about the Jets, they finally got me. Buffalo was somehow held to six field goals against a JV defense. This tells me that the Bills had an inability to finish drives. This is something that isn’t really said about the Chiefs. The Jets should get their doors blown off at Arrowhead.
Bet: Chiefs (-19.5)
Steelers @ Ravens (O/U 46.5)
This is a game between two of the top scoring defenses in the league. Each team is also averaging close to 30 points per game, according to ESPN. Lamar Jackson has had his struggles this year and really struggled against this Pittsburgh defense the last time he played them. He threw of 161 yards and three interceptions. The obvious big difference between this game and the last one is Big Ben. He has given this Pittsburgh offense a much needed jolt of energy that was non-existent last year. However, I firmly expect this to be a defensive, ugly rivalry game that should hit the under.
Bet: Under 46.5
Rams (-3.5) @ Dolphins
The Rams have been the best team at just doing enough to win. When they aren’t pushed or pressured, they are a good team. When they fall behind, they really start to show their warts. The Dolphins just made a huge switch at QB with rookie Tua Tagovailoa making his first start this Sunday. It has yet to be seen if the Dolphins will be better off with Tua or with FitzMagic. The way I see it is that the Rams defense is not the ideal one to face in your first NFL start, and I think Tua is going to find that out the hard way.
Bet: Rams (-3.5)
Raiders @ Browns (O/U 51)
This is a battle between two good (?) teams this weekend as the 3-3 Raiders face the 5-2 Browns. The NFL always has these hit or miss teams that wouldn’t have a chance in hell against an actual good team. The Browns are coming off of a last second win against the Bengals. Woohoo. The Raiders just got walloped by the new favorites in the NFC, the Tampa Bay Bucs. Don’t @ me bro. This game should hit the over. The Raiders just gave up 45 points last week while the Browns gave up 34. Baker actually showed he can be an NFL QB. Both of these teams are in the bottom four in points allowed per game, according to ESPN. Take the over and make it rain. Just don’t go giving it out after your alma mater wins a national championship.
Bet: Over 51
Patriots @ Bills (-4)
As a Patriots fan, writing this is depressing. Tears are covering my keyboard as we speak. I tried to explain how the Pats would rebound as they always do. However, I need to remind myself that these are not the Patriots I am used to, and they are never coming back. I see no reason as to why the Bills won’t cover. To make matters worse, the Pats will not have Julian Edelman this week. The dynasty is dead.
Bet: Bills (-4)
Colts (-3) @ Lions
Road favorites are always sketchy. Especially when that road favorite isn’t a team that inspires a lot of confidence. The Colts are coming off of a bye week. Before that, they had an impressive comeback win against the Bengals at home. I know it’s the Bengals but a win is a win. The Lions are coming off of a miracle win against the Falcons. My issue with the Colts is that they haven’t really played anyone good so far this year. Their wins have come against the Jags (1 win), the Jets (no wins), the Vikings (1 win), the Bengals (1 win), and the Bears. The Bears do have five wins but they are as fraudulent a team as you can find. The Lions have quietly won three out of their last four with all of those wins coming on the road. They should be happy to be home. I expect them to beat the Colts.
Bet: Lions (+3)
Chargers (-3) @ Broncos
I cannot in good conscious bet against Justin. He was the reason I cashed my best bet last week and I LOVE HIM. He has had two straight four touchdown games and looks to be running away with the Offensive Rookie of Year award. The Broncos are coming off of a 43-16 defeat against the Chiefs. While the Broncos defense held Patrick Mahomes to a modest 200 yards and one touchdown, their offense was putrid. Drew Lock and co. just have not spent enough time on the field together this season to form any kind of consistency. With Justin getting his first career home win, I feel it’s time that he gets his first career road win. Expect the Bolts to cover.
Bet: Chargers (-3)
49ers @ Seahawks (-3)
The Seahawks are coming off of a home loss to the Cardinals, a game that probably is the game of the year so far. The 49ers just dismantled the Patriots like they were Alabama playing against Middle Tennessee. This is a tough game to call. I expect the Seahawks to rebound and who knows when the last time they lost two home games in a row was. The Niners are also on a two game winning streak as they seem to be rounding into form. Last season, the two teams split the season series with each team winning their respective matchup on the road. This feels like one of those “coin flip” games. In this scenario, I will take the underdog. The Niners have more momentum than the Seahawks do currently and need this win to contend at the top of the division.
Bet: Niners (+3)
Saints @ Bears (O/U 43.5)
After a shaky start to the season, the Saints have won three straight games. They have been able to survive without Michael Thomas so far this season. However, they arguably have not played a defense as stout as Chicago’s so far this season. Chicago has only given up 20 points per game. The main issue with Chicago is their anemic offense. Nick Foles has not given them much life offensively. That was evident on Monday night against the Rams when he threw for 261 scoreless yards and two interceptions. The last four games that Chicago has played would have hit the under that applies to this game. Chicago has a way of making teams play to their level, and I expect the Saints to be dragged into the mud with them.
Bet: Under 43.5
Cowboys @ Eagles (-8.5)
D-I-N-U-C-C-I. DiNucci is the name to drive. Shockingly, Ben Dinucci is not a car salesman. He is actually the starting QB for the Cowboys this week. Being paired with the worst defense in the league only makes matters worse. The Cowboys are arguably as bad as the Jets at this point. While the Eagles do not inspire a whole lot of confidence, the Cowboys are starting Ben DiNucci. I do not expect the Cowboys to score enough points to prevent the Eagles from covering.
Bet: Eagles (-8.5)
Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Giants
The Bucs are rolling right now. They have beaten the Packers and Raiders by a combined margin of 53. The Giants have been able to keep most of their games close. However, it has been against the likes of their own division. It is hard to think the Bucs won’t cover in this game, even without Chris Godwin. They are clicking on all cylinders and should win this game with ease.
Bet: Bucs (-10.5)