A 5-8 record last week bring my season record to 30-37. I wish I was better as much as you guys do. However, this is a grind and i am still hoping to salvage a good record one week at a time. The best thing about this week is that the Jets and Cowboys are on a bye. Can this Sunday be a national holiday for that?
As always, my odds come directly from Draftkings Sportsbook. Good luck!
Bet of the Week:
Colts (-1) @ Titans O/U 48.5
PARLAY ALERT!!!! This is rare but my best bet of the week is a parlay. Due to this game practically being a pick em, I feel like this is a necessary move. I cannot for the life of me understand why the Colts are favorites in this game. They just got run over by the Ravens and are traveling on a short week. The Titans just dominated the lowly Bears, whose offense I actually see similar to the Colts. Both teams also combine to give up roughly 45 points per game. I see this as a can’t-miss parlay opportunity. The Titans are a very good home team with more talent on offense while the Colts are coming off of a deflating loss. Both defenses are solid enough to keep this a low scoring, close game.
Bet: Titans (+1) and Under 48.5
Jaguars @ Packers (-13) O/U 50
All things considered, this is a very large spread. Most teams do not cover spreads of this size. However. I firmly expect the Pack to cover here. They just soundly beat the Niners a week ago while the Jags lost a close game to the Texans. That game told me much more about Houston than the Jags. The Jags are in tank mode and the Packers should happily feast in every facet of this game.
Bet: Packers -13
Bucs (-5.5) @ Panthers O/U 50.5
Yes! It was time to bet against the Bucs last week and it promptly paid off as they were smashed by the Saints. The Panthers, once again, lost a close game. However, with this one being against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, it was definitely a moral victory. Due to the Bucs recent struggles and the Panthers propensity to keep every game close, give me the Panthers and the points here. As always, *uck the Bucs.
Bet: Panthers (+5.5)
Eagles (-3.5) @ Giants O/U 44.5
The NFC East needs to stop playing each other so we can all enjoy football a little more again. It’s flat out depressing. Picking these games is almost impossible with all of this mediocrity. That is why I lean towards the points in this game, and I favor the over. With Philly getting Miles Sanders back and the Giants playing sneakily well their past two ball games, I expect points to be put up like there’s no tomorrow. In my opinion, there shouldn’t be a tomorrow for either of these teams, but I digress.
Bet: Over 44.5
Texans @ Browns (-3.5) O/U 49
Yuck. That’s all I can say about this matchup at face value. It is also supposed to be quite rainy in Cleveland on Sunday so that doesn’t help matters. Something that should help Cleveland is the return of Nick Chubb. They can try and finally get back to what they do best, which is running the football. Considering the Texans give up the most rushing yards per game in the NFL, according to ESPN, gives the Browns that much needed edge in order to cover in this game.
Washington @ Detroit (-4.5) O/U 45.5
Another bleh game. These are two teams that are coming off of losses and did not look overly impressive in them. The Lions look to be without their top wideout Kenny Golladay again while Washington will roll out Alex Smith after Kyle Allen’s gruesome injury. The strangest thing about the Lions is that they have not won a home game this season. They are 0-3 so far. Considering Washington has very little going for them and the Lions have to break this streak at some point, give me the Lions.
Bet: Lions (-4.5)
Bills @ Cardinals (-2) O/U 56.5
Shootout alert! These two teams know how to put up points and they put them up in bunches. The Bills scored 44 points in their last outing. I know it was against the Seahawks but points are points. The Cards are averaging 29.3 ppg on the season, according to ESPN. While chasing the over is very tempting, that number is just much too high for me. In this game, I like the Cardinals at home. The Bills have not been very impressive on the road as of late, as they were run over by the Titans and barely beat the Jets. I also tend to shy away from teams traveling east to west. Give me the Cards.
Bet: Cardinals (-2.5)
Chargers @ Dolphins (-2.5) O/U 48.5
Oh Chargers. It pains me that their stink is rubbing off on Justin. I’m not saying that Herbert has played poorly. He is just a microcosm of a team that cannot win close games. Miami, on the other hand, is trending in the right direction. Tua looks like he’s a real player while their defense has exceeded expectations with a defensive touchdown in their last two games. With a spread as close as this one, I steer away and look at the over/under. I personally like the over in this game. The Chargers have given up 31.8 ppg in their last five while Miami just gave up 31 to the Cardinals. I say good luck to either defense slowing down these two rookie QBs.
Bet: Over 48.5
Broncos @ Raiders (-4.5) O/U 50
Coming to you live from the Death Star is this matchup between the Raiders and the Broncos. The Raiders are coming off of a last second win against the Chargers while the Broncos were just handily beaten by the Falcons. I expect the Raiders to cover here. They are the superior team and they are at home. The Raiders are surprisingly just 1-2 at home this year and I see that turning into a .500 record this week. The Broncos have also given up 35.6 ppg in their last three games. Expect the Raiders to score too much for the Broncos to be able to keep pace.
Bet: Raiders (-4.5)
49ers @ Saints (-9) O/U 49
This is a case of two teams trending in very wrong directions. The Saints just dismantled the Bucs on the road while the Niners just got their doors blown off by the Packers. Drew Brees is on an absolute tear as he had thrown for 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last three games. The Niners are just dealing with way too many injuries at the moment as George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo will miss this game. Expect the Saints to cover with ease.
Bet: Saints (-9)
Seahawks @ Rams (-1.5) O/U 54.5
The simplest way I can put this is that Seahawks=overs. Every game they have played in to this point has been over 50+ points combined. The Seahawks are the perfect team because they score as much as they give up. I understand that this is a high total but both teams have enough firepower to hit the over.
Bet: Over 54.5
Bengals @ Steelers (-7) O/U 43.5
With the uncertainty surrounding Ben Roethlisberger due to him being placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday, this is a hard game to place a bet on. However, with the Steelers quietly struggling to win games and the fact that all good things must come to an end, give me the Bengals. I’m not saying I think they will win this game. I just think that the Bengals will most likely do enough to not let the Steelers cover.
Bet: Bengals (+7)
Ravens (-7) @ Patriots O/U 43.5
I am not the guy to get excited over a close win against the Jets, but it changes my oulook just a tad on the Pats. Jakobi Meyers looks like a solid player while the one-two punch of Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris give the Pats a solid run game. The Ravens are coming off of a solid win, even as Lamar Jackson’s struggles continue. Considering it is supposed to rain in Foxboro on Sunday night, I expect both teams to run the ball. Running the ball equals an ugly game most of the time. Ugly games equal close games. See what I’m getting at here? Take the points here with the Pats.
Bet: Patriots (+7)
Vikings (-3) @ Bears O/U 43.5
The Bears are just flat out awful. The fact they still have a winning record amazes me. They have lost three games in a row while Nick Foles continues to struggle mightily. The Vikings however are on an upswing. The return of Dalvin Cook after a one-game absence has reinvigorated this team. He has been an absolute monster in his last two outings, with 369 rushing yards and five touchdowns. I expect Dalvin to run wild once again and lead the Vikings to an easy cover. The Bears just cannot score enough to keep up with anyone.
Bet: Vikings (-3)